RNZ Interview on UK 2026 LOCAL ELECTIONS
On Friday 8 May I was interviewed by Jesse Mulligan on RNZ Afternoons about the UK local and devolved elections. https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2019034212/explainer-why-we-should-be-keeping-an-eye-on-the-uk-election
These elections mark another step towards a far more fragmented and nation-specific political landscape. The rise of Reform UK has rightly been a focus of commentary. But this has been coupled with the rise of the Greens, particularly in London and other urban centres, along with strong performances by the SNP and Plaid Cymru in Scotland and Wales respectively. The result is both major parties increasingly being squeezed from multiple directions at once. One of the bigger long-term questions may be what this means for the future of first-past-the-post itself. Britain increasingly looks like a multi-party political system operating inside institutions designed for relatively stable two-party competition.
RNZ Afternoons — UK Local & Devolved Elections
Broadcast: 8 May 2026
Programme: RNZ Afternoons with Jesse Mulligan
Guest: Marcus Ganley
Jesse Mulligan:
Well, in England voting has closed in one of the largest council elections in years. There are around 5,000 council seats up for grabs and over 25,000 people contesting them. Meanwhile, there are also parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales.
Council elections, you think — what’s the big deal? Well, the thing that makes this election significant is that it’s the first real test of the so-called “Green wave” alongside the rise of Reform UK. Bad results will put more pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government, which has seen a significant decline in popularity of late.
Results are trickling in. So far Reform has picked up 75 seats, Labour 10, Lib Dems 12, Greens 6 and Conservatives 5.
I’m joined now by Marcus Ganley, who has been following the action. Marcus is a public law specialist with Franks Ogilvie, but was previously a ministerial adviser to the Helen Clark Government and held senior roles in Australian federal politics.
Marcus, hello.
Marcus Ganley:
G’day Jesse, how are you?
Jesse Mulligan:
Good, thank you. From your point of view, how significant is this election?
Marcus Ganley:
Well, one of the really interesting things about council elections in the UK is that they’re much more strongly correlated to the national political mood than they are in New Zealand.
So, for example, in New Zealand we can say, “Oh, in the last council elections former Labour minister Andrew Little won the Wellington mayoralty — that probably tells us something good for Labour in Wellington, but it’s quite loose.”
Whereas in the UK there’s a really strong tradition of these local elections being both an opportunity for voters to send a message, because almost all the candidates are directly branded as Labour, Conservative, Reform, Liberal Democrat or Green candidates. They’re not running as independents who people sort of know might be close to a party.
And there’s a long tradition of these elections being seen as a way to send a message.
Jesse Mulligan:
Yeah, it makes me think more of the US midterms than New Zealand local body elections in that way. A bit of a temperature check between general elections.
Can you explain to our listeners where Reform and the Greens sit on the political spectrum?
Marcus Ganley:
Yeah. Reform is a party led by Nigel Farage, who many of your listeners will be aware of. It emerged out of the Brexit Party.
It positions itself on what you’d call the populist right. They were anti-EU, now they’re very anti-“woke”, focused on cutting red tape and getting government out of your life.
The Greens are really targeting the space to the left of the Labour Party. We’ve seen the Greens pick up a by-election just a few weeks ago in Manchester — the Gorton and Denton by-election. They picked up what had previously been a very safe Labour seat, and the Greens won that with Reform coming second.
Jesse Mulligan:
Are the Greens in the UK, as they are here, about more than just environmental politics? More broadly social justice as well?
Marcus Ganley:
Exactly right, Jesse. Under the new leader, Zack Polanski, who’s very popular at the moment according to polling, they’re really making a pitch into that broader political left space.
Jesse Mulligan:
So what are we interested in looking at as the counting starts? Not in those parliamentary elections yet, but certainly in the council elections.
What are we watching for?
Marcus Ganley:
Well, it’s really interesting to see quite how much Reform wins.
One of the interesting dynamics about UK elections is that often it’s the north of the country that comes in first. We’re already seeing that. So places like Hartlepool — traditionally a very safe Labour area — the council there has been won by Reform on the latest figures I’m seeing.
We’re also seeing places like Salford, just west of Manchester, where Reform is doing very well.
So it tells us both that Reform is performing in the way the opinion polls suggested it would — because there’s always a question: you poll well, but is that actually going to translate into votes?
There’s also a geographical question.
Now, the “Green wave” people are talking about — we probably shouldn’t expect to see that until a bit later in the day our time, because the Greens are most likely to have their big wins in London.
Places like Camden — there’s a real chance the Greens are going to take control of some of these councils.
And that plays into another narrative you mentioned off the top: what this means for the Starmer Government and for Keir Starmer personally.
Jesse Mulligan:
Yeah, I’ll get to that in a moment.
From an outsider’s perspective, it seems like a rejection of the mainstream from UK voters. Is that fair to say?
Marcus Ganley:
That’s definitely what it looks like.
A lot of the conversation is around the poor polling of Labour, but boy, the Conservatives aren’t even part of the conversation we’ve been having so far — and they’ve been the most successful party in UK politics. Some people say the most successful political operation in the world by number of elections won.
And this is the first time we’re mentioning them in this conversation.
Jesse Mulligan:
Right. And that’s still something of a hangover from the previous general election — the Labour landslide where the Conservatives were really quite decimated.
They obviously haven’t rebuilt yet.
Marcus Ganley:
No — and the growth of Reform is much more at their expense.
People keep talking about it against Labour because Labour is the government, so it’s an obvious place to focus. But really, Reform polling at around 28 percent — most of that vote is coming from the Tories, who are down in the teens.
Jesse Mulligan:
Okay, well where does Keir Starmer fit in?
People will have worked out by now that whatever happens in these council elections — Wales and Scotland aside — it’s not going to affect the makeup of the UK Parliament.
So why does Starmer care?
Marcus Ganley:
Yeah, and that’s a good question.
He was elected in 2024, five-year term, nice big majority — not quite Tony Blair-level, but very strong.
And by all accounts he should be in office comfortably for another three years.
But even coming into this election he was under a lot of pressure. His popularity wasn’t high. There had been murmurings within the government.
According to the front page of The Times today, one of his Cabinet ministers has told him this is it — it’s time to start talking about when you’re going to depart.
This has been denied.
But it’s interesting that The Times is running that on the front page. Clearly this is not a vote of confidence in Keir Starmer.
Now, does it mean he’s going? I don’t think we can draw that conclusion yet, but it certainly isn’t going to help his standing within the party because he can’t point to public popularity.
Jesse Mulligan:
What’s gone wrong for him?
Marcus Ganley:
Well, that’s probably a much broader conversation, Jesse.
There’s a lot going on. The UK has been through some really tough economic times. Brexit hasn’t delivered the kind of economic returns that supporters argued it would — it’s probably been closer to what opponents predicted.
And there have also been quite a few own goals.
Jesse Mulligan:
Okay. So people are unhappy, and that generally doesn’t go well for incumbents.
One thing — and again this is probably not a direct result of what happens today — but if the mainstream parties can see the Greens resonating, or Reform resonating, there must be a temptation to pinch some of their policies, or at least some of their rhetoric, to try to stem the flow.
Is the growth of these more fringe parties likely to affect mainstream policy?
Marcus Ganley:
That’s a big part of the debate in the UK at the moment.
If you’re following UK politics, the question both Labour and the Conservatives are debating internally is: what does this mean?
Do you try to pitch to the centre? Or do you try to reclaim those votes captured by the Greens on the left, if you’re Labour, or Reform on the right, if you’re the Conservatives?
And there seems to be quite a lot of division — particularly within the current government — around which direction they want to go in.
Jesse Mulligan:
When will we get a good snapshot of what’s happened in this election?
Marcus Ganley:
Not until quite late tonight, our time.
If you’re not a complete political tragic, you probably want to wait and have a look on Saturday morning when the air has cleared and we can get a better overview of how it’s turned out across the country.
Jesse Mulligan:
Hey, great to chat to you. Thanks very much for your analysis.
Marcus Ganley:
Same — great to talk to you, Jesse.